The mining sector is entering a “supercycle” unlike any before, but one defined by steady value, not runaway profits, according to International Council on Mining and Metals (ICMM) president and chief executive officer Rohitesh Dhawan.
Speaking at the 35th BMO Capital Markets Global Metals, Mining & Critical Minerals Conference, Dhawan said the question of a supercycle is more important than the answer.
“It forces us to look beyond quarterly results to the bigger forces shaping our sector,” he said. “We have multiple, long-term demand drivers arriving at once — energy transition, electrification, defence, supply chain reshoring, and digital infrastructure.
“These aren’t short-term cycles. They stack, they persist and they will shape mining for decades.”
At the same time, supply is slow: permits take longer, projects face more delays, and geopolitical risks fragment production. Unlike past supercycles, governments are actively managing the cycle through stockpiles, export controls, and fiscal measures.
“Instead of explosive price spikes followed by collapse, we are likely to see persistent tightness and managed growth. The upside is slower, but more durable. The downside is more political,” Dhawan said.
ICMM’s 2025 Tax Contribution Report shows members paid $US37.1 billion in taxes and royalties, with the combined rate rising to 42.5 per cent. Even as profits fell, more value flowed to governments.
“This is not value escaping the system. It is value being continuously integrated into public revenues,” Dhawan said.
For investors, Dhawan said to focus on scarce, operating assets with margin resilience in jurisdictions with manageable policy risk. “
“This is not a supercycle of excess,” he said. “It is a supercycle of constraint. Not defined purely by price, but by how reliably value is created and shared over time.”
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