The global metals market is being rewritten

The world’s metals markets are entering their biggest shake-up since the China-driven super-cycle of the 2000s, and this time it seems the old rules no longer apply.

According to a new ING analysis, the next phase will not be driven by a single growth engine or a simple macro narrative, but by a more fragmented, policy-driven and geopolitically-charged market that is reshaping demand, supply and pricing across the sector.

China remains a major consumer, but its grip on global metals demand has loosened as electrification, clean energy, defence and data infrastructure take centre stage.

“Metals closely linked to electrification are increasingly influenced by policy incentives and technology adoption rather than traditional industrial cycles,” ING commodities strategist Ewa Manthey said. “The metals leading the rally right now are the ones critical for global electrification.”

Silver surged past $US80 per ounce for the first time in history at the end of 2025, while copper jumped 42 per cent over the year to hit a string of record highs. Both now sit on the US Geological Survey’s critical minerals list, underlining their growing strategic importance.

But supply is struggling to keep up. Manthey warns that higher prices no longer deliver rapid supply responses after years of underinvestment, falling ore grades and lengthening approvals.

Environmental pressures and resource nationalism are further tightening the tap, making new tonnes slower and riskier to bring online. Geopolitics is now firmly in the driver’s seat.

Manthey said critical minerals are increasingly viewed as strategic assets, with export controls, stockpiling and industrial policy reshaping global flows. Unlike commercial demand, government stockpiling is price-insensitive, injecting a new source of volatility into markets.

The message is clear: this is not another boom-and-bust cycle. ING believes metals markets have entered a new era, one defined by strategic demand, constrained supply and sharper price swings that could persist well beyond 2026.