US intervention spurs gold rally

The recent US military intervention in Venezuela is driving up gold prices, but analysts say it is unlikely to translate into a near-term boost for the country’s mining sector.

Following the capture of President Nicolás Maduro over the weekend of January 3–4, gold prices rose two per cent, reaching $US4430 on January 5.  The move extends a trend seen throughout 2025, when gold prices repeatedly hit new highs, peaking at $US4547 on December 26.

The annual average price for gold surged 44 per cent year-on-year to $US3450, supported by elevated geopolitical risks, a more dovish Federal Reserve, and a weaker US dollar.

“The US intervention in Venezuela is supportive of higher gold prices, given the short and long-term uncertainty it introduces for commodity markets and for Washington’s relations with Beijing and Moscow,” BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, said.

BMI revised its 2026 gold forecast to $US3700, noting upside risks should geopolitical turbulence persist. However, the capture of Maduro is unlikely to materially change Venezuela’s mining outlook.

Once the world’s 12-largest producer of iron ore and eighth-largest producer of bauxite, Venezuela’s production has plummeted over two decades, with iron ore down from 20 million tonnes to two million and bauxite dropping from five million tonnes to 300,000. Gold production remains underdeveloped, often controlled by guerrilla groups and criminal gangs.

While strategic minerals such as copper, nickel, coltan, titanium and tungsten offer potential, analysts caution that Venezuela’s long-standing underinvestment, lack of reliable geological data, and oil dominance limit near-term opportunities.

“Even if a government friendly to Washington is installed, deposits would need to be of exceptionally high grade to attract capital,” BMI said.

As Venezuela navigates its political transition, gold investors appear set to benefit from heightened market uncertainty, while miners continue to face a challenging and high-risk environment.