The race for copper has already begun

Copper is no longer just a metal – it’s the prize in a global race shaping technology, energy and geopolitics. Global demand is entering a high-stakes sprint.

Wood Mackenzie forecasts a 24 per cent rise by 2035, reaching nearly 43 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), driven not only by construction and transport but by data centres, low-carbon energy projects, defence modernisation, and rapid industrialisation in Southeast Asia and India.

“Even with current and forecast copper prices above the level required to sanction new mines, Western miners are keeping their powder dry,” Wood Mackenzie analysts said.

“Developing major copper mines needs billions of dollars in upfront capital, and Western miners typically rely on private debt, with providers imposing increasingly demanding conditions.”

Environmental, social and governance (ESG) pressures, capital discipline and financing hurdles mean many Western companies are prioritising sustaining output over risky greenfield developments. Operational challenges such as water scarcity and complex permitting processes add further friction.

Meanwhile, Chinese miners are seizing the opportunity.

“Of the $US76 billion invested globally in green and brownfield copper supply between 2019 and 2025, around 50 per cent came from Chinese miners,” Wood Mackenzie said.

By building fully integrated supply chains from mining to refining to manufacturing, China is securing resources, reducing dependency on external partners, and capturing higher margins. State-backed financing and strategic mandates give Chinese companies a tolerance for risk that many Western firms cannot match.

With global demand surging and supply constrained, the copper market is no longer just a commodity story. Whoever controls the flow of copper may shape the pace of the green energy transition, industrial growth and even national security for decades to come.

For more, visit Wood Mackenzie’s website.