BHP becomes global copper barometer

With BHP shares jumping more than three per cent in the past 24 hours amid China signalling a tentative rebound in copper demand, investors are increasingly viewing the miner as the world’s proxy for global copper activity.

According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), Chinese copper plate, sheet and strip producers lifted operating rates to 68.39 per cent in November, up 3.4 percentage points month-on-month.

The recovery came as downstream buyers released backlogged orders after copper prices briefly eased below 86,000 yuan per tonne. Faster cargo pick-up also helped reduce inventories, improving product circulation and relieving some pressure on the sector.

SMM reported that while orders in the copper plate, sheet and foil sector increased in November, they have yet to reach typical peak-season levels – showing the underlying strength and resilience of the industry despite persistently high copper prices.

For BHP, the implications are significant. The miner controls the world’s largest copper resource base, producing over two million tonnes in the 2024–25 financial year (FY25), with copper contributing nearly 45 per cent of group earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA). Even small upticks in Chinese processing activity ripple directly through BHP’s valuation.

The share jump also amplifies the stakes in the company’s chief executive officer search. The next leader will inherit a miner increasingly defined by copper, with market movements in China acting as a real-time test of the company’s strategy.

SMM cautioned that December production could be constrained by high copper prices, and some substitution with aluminium is emerging.

Yet this supply tightness only reinforces copper’s long-term value and BHP’s dominant position. In a crowded market, the miner has emerged as the heartbeat stock of global copper demand, with its shares reflecting every pulse of the sector.