Goldman Sachs has boosted its iron ore price forecast for 2026, pointing to macroeconomic support, tighter inventories and steady Chinese steel production.
According to Bloomberg, Goldman now expects iron ore to average $US93 a tonne next year, up from its earlier forecast of $US88.
Analysts said the market has remained tighter than expected in recent months, with resilient Chinese hot-metal production, flat port stockpiles and a stronger yuan all helping to support prices.
Even with the upgrade, Goldman remains cautious about what lies ahead. The bank expects prices to drop to $US88 per tonne by the final quarter of 2026, reflecting weakness in China’s steel sector.
On the supply side, Goldman noted that global iron ore shipments have climbed 15 per cent year-on-year so far this quarter, which could deepen the usual seasonal build in port inventories and keep pressure on prices through next year.
Despite this, October Chinese imports are forecast by Kpler analysts to exceed 113 million tonnes, a figure that would be the second highest ever for the nation.
China currently imports close to 75 per cent of global seaborne iron ore and uses the material to produce nearly half of the world’s steel.
With that in mind, a recent Australian iron ore miner to watch would be Mineral Resources (MinRes). The company’s stock has risen over 10 per cent in the past 10 days and has soured by 124 per cent over the past six months, driven by record iron ore production and shipments.
The recently company released it latest quarterly report, highlighting MinRes’ operational strength across its iron ore and lithium divisions, with Onslow Iron shipping 8.6 million tonnes (100 per cent basis) in the first quarter and operating at its full 35-million-tonne-per-annum nameplate capacity between August and October.
This milestone triggers a $200 million contingent payment from Morgan Stanley Infrastructure Partners (MSIP), adding to the company’s financial momentum.
Total quarterly iron ore production across Onslow Iron and the Pilbara Hub was a record of 10.9 million tonnes (Mt), with record shipments of 11.4Mt.
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