BHP’s Jansen potash project in Saskatchewan is moving ahead, with Stage 1 now 68 per cent complete and first production expected by mid-2027, despite capital costs rising to as much as $US7.4 billion.
The project, described by BHP as a “world-class asset”, will mark the miner’s entry into the global potash market and is expected to operate at the low end of the cost curve once fully ramped up.
Capital expenditure for Jansen Stage 1 has been revised upwards from the original $US5.7 billion estimate to a range of $US7–7.4 billion, reflecting inflationary and real cost escalation pressures, design development and scope changes, and a current assessment of lower productivity outcomes, the company said.
While acknowledging the increase was “disappointing”, BHP said that the long-term fundamentals for potash remain compelling.
“Jansen will increase our product diversification, customer base and operating footprint, and expand our business into a future growth market,” the company said.
Once operational, Jansen Stage 1 is expected to produce approximately 4.15 million tonnes per annum, with a two-year ramp-up period following first production.
Jansen Stage 2, approved last year and currently 11 per cent complete, has seen its schedule extended by two years, with first production now slated for the 2030–31 financial year (FY31).
BHP highlighted progress made during FY25, including the safe completion of the underground lateral connection between the project’s two vertical shafts and ongoing construction of the wet and dry mill areas. Rail infrastructure is also advancing, with the first delivery of railcars received on site.
A fertiliser, potash can enable more efficient and sustainable farming. BHP believes the commodity is going to be increasingly required as a growing population seeks more and better food production from constrained farmable land.
“Potash markets are expected to continue to benefit from a growing and wealthier population and the need for more sustainable agriculture,” BHP chief executive officer Mike Henry said.
With production expected in 2027, Jansen positions BHP to become a major global supplier of potash by the end of the decade, strengthening its long-term growth strategy while advancing diversification beyond copper, iron ore and steelmaking coal.
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