State Street Global Advisors (SSGA) is predicting gold to maintain or even extend its record-setting trajectory throughout the remainder of 2025.
SSGA has released its mid-year 2025 gold outlook, expecting gold to trade between $US3100–3500 per ounce in 2025, supported by ongoing economic uncertainty, investor anxiety, and persistent weakness in the US dollar.
A more bullish scenario, which SSGA assigns a 30 per cent probability, suggests gold could climb towards $US4000 per ounce over the next six to nine months if macroeconomic conditions deteriorate further.
SSGA says gold continues to shine amid economic uncertainty, consumer anxiety, and a weaker US dollar, reinforcing the metal’s role as a low-volatility, portfolio-diversifying, safe-haven asset.
“Demand for gold as a low volatility, portfolio diversifying, perceived safe-haven asset, should continue especially as the probability distribution of policy, geopolitical, and macroeconomic outcomes widens,” the report said.
“Gold’s price run during the first five months of 2025 – up 25 per cent to $US3300 per ounce – once again places it at the top of the leaderboard for global macro asset classes.”
Importantly, SSGA believes a higher price floor for gold has now been set in 2025, reflecting the metal’s growing strategic appeal in both institutional and retail portfolios.
The outlook also anticipates renewed demand for gold-backed exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have seen subdued activity in recent quarters.
SSGA expects ETF inflows to gain momentum in the second half of 2025, further supporting gold prices.
While some analysts question whether gold’s rally is overextended, SSGA maintains a bullish medium-term view.
With the macro backdrop still marked by volatility, including uncertain interest rate paths, geopolitical tensions, and inflation risks – gold’s value proposition remains intact.
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