Global copper demand is accelerating sharply as clean energy infrastructure expands, but supply is struggling to keep pace.
This is according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025, which forecasted a 30 per cent supply deficit by 2035 based on the existing pipeline of copper mining projects.
Refined copper demand is projected to climb from 27 million tonnes (Mt) in 2024 to 33Mt in 2035 and nearly 37Mt by 2050 under the IEA’s Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS).
This growth is attributed to sectors such as construction, electricity grids and electric vehicles (EV), with EV copper demand forecast to increase sevenfold from two per cent of global consumption in 2024 to 10 per cent in 2050.
The report noted that despite strong copper demand, the current mine project pipeline points to a shortfall.
“(This is) due to declining ore grades, rising capital costs, limited resource discoveries and long lead times,” the IEA noted.
Meanwhile, geopolitical concentration remains high, with China accounting for nearly 60 per cent of refined copper demand in 2024. Meanwhile, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has recently surpassed Chile as the world’s second-largest copper refiner.
Without significant new investment, the IEA warns that copper could emerge as a major bottleneck to the global clean energy transition.
Major miners are recognising this, which is why BHP is investing so heavily in the metal.
“We want to grow in copper,” Henry said. “Over the next 20 years the world is going to need up to 70 per cent more copper.”
In the post, BHP said it had the largest copper resource in the world, with a significant footprint in Chile and Australia to accompany its presence in Peru and the US.
The company last year announced plans to more than double SA copper production by the mid-2030s, and provided greater insight into how this will be achieved in February.
To realise the copper uplift, BHP will need to upgrade its Olympic Dam smelter and refinery so it can produce more than 500,000 tonnes per year.
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