US coal push won’t unseat Australian producers

While the US is bidding to revive its coal sector, analysts agree it poses little threat to Australia’s dominance in Asian export markets.

US President Donald Trump signed four executive orders to boost the US coal industry, including fast-tracking permits for coal mines, reducing restrictions on the mining, leasing and export of the commodity.

It comes as US coal production has been declining over the past two decades, with 2023 production less than half of what was produced in 2008.

“The idea that the US can compete with Australia in Asia is pretty laughable,” Wood Mackenzie principal analyst Rory Simington told The Australian Financial Review.

“If (US coal) ports were on the west coast rather than east, it might be a different story, but I don’t think it will move the dial much for Australia.”

Australian coal continues to find a reliable market in countries like China, India, South Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

In response to widespread tariffs from the US Government, China recently imposed a 15 per cent import tariff on US coal, further enhancing Australia’s case as a reliable supplier.

BMI global head of commodities Sabrin Chowdhury believes an increase in US coal production would affect prices.

“The indirect impact of this for the rest of the global coal mining industry would be a strong decline in prices,” she said. “Sentiment is already weak.”

Amid this volatility, Whitehaven Coal has been delivering strong performances, showcasing the value of scale and diversification.

The company posted an underlying net-profit after tax (NPAT) of $328 million in the first half of the 2024–25 financial year (FY25), with revenue surging to $3.4 billion, up from $1.6 billion in the first half of FY24, and run-of-mine production nearly doubling to 19.4 million tonnes (Mt).

“FY25 is the first full financial year of Whitehaven’s ownership of the Queensland operations at Daunia and Blackwater, and I’m delighted to report a strong first-half result,” Whitehaven chief executive officer Paul Flynn said.

“Operational performance at Daunia and Blackwater – and across our NSW mines – has been in line with or better than plan, and demand for Whitehaven’s metallurgical and thermal coal products continues to prove strong.”

As the US looks to muscle its way up the global coal ladder, Australian coal leaders like Whitehaven continue to focus on operational excellence and shareholder returns.