Nickel demand shows promise despite price dip

While nickel prices are forecast to decline in 2025, BMI is optimistic that demand for the metal will rise.

BMI projects a 6.9 increase of global nickel demand in 2025, highlighting the growing role of clean energy technologies and stainless steel output in supporting the market.

Mainland China, the world’s largest nickel consumer, is expected to drive this growth, with demand forecast to rise by 8.5 per cent to 1.9 million tonnes.

Stainless steel production continues to be a cornerstone of nickel demand, having grown by 5.4 per cent in the first nine months of 2024, with that momentum expected to carry through 2025.

BMI also anticipates long-term strength in the nickel market as demand from the green energy transition continues to rise.

“In the longer term, we hold a more optimistic nickel price outlook,” BMI said, forecasting a price rise to $US26,000/t by 2034 as the market tips into deficit.

This growth will be underpinned by surging EV production and renewable energy capacity, both of which rely on nickel for battery storage and components.

Glencore would take advantage of these long-term prices through its Murrin Murrin mine, which produced 34,300 tonnes  of nickel in 2024, 10 per cent higher than 2023.

If this major nickel mine can push through a decline, it may reap the rewards of a demand increase as the market returns to baseline.

Benchmark expects battery nickel demand to triple by 2030, projecting that nickel-based chemistries will capture 85 per cent battery cell production capacity outside of China by 2030, with production increasingly pivoting towards high-nickel chemistry longer-term.

Wyloo chief executive officer Luca Giacovazzi believes nickel is due for a revival.

“If you take a step back and look at the demand, it has been growing consistently over the last ten years,” Giacovazzi said.

“We see nickel as a core part of the clean energy transition and essential for EV batteries and renewable energy storage. The long-term fundamentals remain strong despite the recent price volatility.”

While short-term pressures remain, the long-term outlook for nickel is increasingly tied to global decarbonisation trends, presenting strong opportunities for the metal in the years ahead.