India’s rapid economic growth is set to increase global energy demand, with coal imports expected to rise despite the country’s push towards renewables.
This presents a significant opportunity for Australian coal producers, according to Wood Mackenzie’s (WoodMac) latest report.
India’s economy is anticipated to nearly triple to $US9 trillion by 2033, with power demand surging to almost 4000 terawatt hours (TWh).
While the country is investing heavily in renewable energy, coal will be required as a primary energy supplier.
WoodMac estimates that India’s coal demand will nearly double to 2.2 billion tonnes by 2033, driven by industrial expansion and energy security concerns.
“India’s growth story shares similarities with China’s rapid expansion, but crucial differences set it apart,” Wood Mackenzie principal economist Yanting Zhou said.
“While energy demand will surge, India’s industrial sector is less energy-intensive, and the country is better positioned to adopt efficient, low-carbon technologies compared to China in the 2000s.”
Despite plans to ramp up domestic coal production to 1.8 billion tonnes annually, India is still expected to import around 200 million tonnes (Mt) of thermal coal from seaborne markets by 2033. The country is also expected to import 160Mt of metallurgical coal by 2033, comprising 47 per cent of the seaborne market.
This is a crucial opportunity for Australian exporters, including the likes of Whitehaven Coal and New Hope Group, as India seeks reliable suppliers amid fluctuating global energy prices.
“There will be pressure on Indonesian thermal coal and Australian metallurgical miners to keep up with the demand when investment in coal is scarce,” WoodMac said.
Whitehaven announced its half-year results in February, stating it has benefited from disciplined cost management and robust coal demand in the first half of the 2024–25 financial year (FY25) as the company remains focused on operational efficiency and strategic growth initiatives, including its recent acquisitions.
The acquisition of BHP’s Daunia and Blackwater mines has further strengthened Whitehaven’s position, increasing production capacity and broadening its asset portfolio.
The company delivered 19.4 million tonnes of run-of-mine (ROM) production, a substantial increase from the 10.3 million tonnes delivered in the the first half of FY24.
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