State Street Global Advisors’ March 2025 Gold Monitor presents a bullish outlook for gold, with prices consolidating between $US2600–3100 per ounce (oz) and a likely break past $US3000 within the next four months.
The price was hovering above $US2930 ($4627)/oz on Thursday, just below the current gold price record of $US2956 achieved on February 25, following concerns about US president Donald Trump’s tariff plans.
Several factors, including strong ETF inflows, central bank demand, and macroeconomic uncertainty, are driving this momentum.
State Street’s report notes that central banks have been net buyers of gold for the last 15 years, highlighting a “potential multi-decade trend of reserve diversification and some bias towards de-dollarisation”.
This continued accumulation of gold, particularly by the People’s Bank of China, the National Bank of Poland, and the Reserve Bank of India is expected to tighten global supply and support higher prices.
Additionally, the record ETF inflows and rising investor interest in gold as a hedge against economic volatility could further drive up Australian gold stock valuations.
The report states that ETF net buying of 65 tonnes last month was the highest since March 2022, reinforcing the bullish case for gold investment.
The Federal Reserve’s potential shift toward monetary easing, coupled with elevated inflation expectations, has strengthened gold’s appeal.
The report highlights declining real yields and policy uncertainty as key drivers of investment demand.
China’s robust gold demand, fuelled by a weak Chinese Yuan and real estate volatility, bodes well for Australian exports.
The report notes that non-monetary bullion imports in the fourth quarter of 2024 doubled versus the third quarter of 2024 volumes, at 108 tonnes per month, and are likely to surge higher in early 2025.
Given that China is Australia’s largest trading partner, sustained demand from Chinese investors and institutions could reinforce export revenues.
While the NY–London arbitrage dynamics and potential US trade tariffs could create short-term fluctuations, the long-term trend remains positive.
“Gold prices appear to be consolidating between the higher end of our 2025 base case range (50 per cent probability) of $2600–2900/oz and the lower end of our bull case range (30 per cent probability) of $2900–3100/oz,” the report said.
With central banks accumulating gold and global ETFs reversing years of outflows, Australia’s gold sector stands to gain significantly – both from higher prices and increased investment interest.
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