Australia can potentially benefit from shifts in global critical mineral supply chains as US President-elect Donald Trump threatens to impose significant tariffs on imports from Mexico, Canada, and China.
The proposed measures include a 10–20 per cent tariff on Mexican and Canadian imports and a 60 per cent tariff on Chinese goods, moves that could disrupt existing free-trade agreements and reshape critical mineral trade dynamics.
The potential disruption creates opportunities for Australia’s critical minerals sector, particularly its lithium mines and spodumene exporters.
“This is potentially good news for local lithium mines and integrated refineries,” Benchmark principal lithium analyst Cameron Perks said.
“Many are high-cost, so it is yet to be seen if the 25 per cent tariff will shift the economic balance.”
Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda prioritises domestic mining through permitting reform and financial support, intending to reduce reliance on foreign critical minerals.
But Australia could be still be a foreign beneficiary.
“It is … a potential win for others like Australia, who do not have a trade surplus with the US, and are ready to export spodumene and diversify their customer base away from China,” Perks said.
In Trump’s first administration, Australian steel and aluminium were exempt from tariffs.
If the President-elect does decide to impose tariffs on international parties, Australia could take advantage of having a larger market share in the US.
While the US aims to seek local alternatives, it lacks large-scale mining capabilities for key minerals like nickel and cobalt, wherein Canada is currently a key player.
Taking this into consideration, some companies in the US might prefer supplies from Australia if the tariffs impact imports from regular suppliers such as Canada.
Australia can benefit from its strong relations with the US, being a member of the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP).
This consortium aims to accelerate the development of diverse and sustainable critical energy minerals supply chains by facilitating targeted financial and diplomatic support for strategic projects along the value chain.
Tariffs could increase costs for US automakers relying on Canadian resources, pushing up battery prices and electric vehicle (EV) costs across North America.
Trump’s opposition to pro-EV policies further complicates the outlook as analysts suggest these shifts could slow EV adoption in the US, reducing projected EV battery demand by up to 20 per cent by 2030, according to Benchmark and Rho Motion.
Amid these changes, Australia’s well-established critical mineral sector is positioned as a reliable alternative, with opportunities to expand its influence in global supply chains.
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