A thin pipeline of projects coupled with increasing demand from technology manufacturers might ensure tin’s long-term vitality.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, has revised up its price forecast for tin. The price of tin has been raised from a forecast annual average of $US26,000 per tonne to $US28,000 per tonne, as supply woes drive up sentiment and prices.
Myanmar contributes to a significant portion of the world’s tin supply, accounting for 77 per cent of China’s tin imports in 2022. Almost all of Myanmar’s tin supply is sourced from the Man Maw mine.
A ban on mining in Myanmar was lifted in January this year, however, Man Maw has not been reinstated.
Similarly, tin exports from Indonesia have faced significant disruption in Q1 2024, with delays in key approvals of mining companies’ annual work plans.
These supply challenges caused a tighter tin market, leading to an unprecedented year-to-date high of $US36,050 per tonne in April.
BMI expects prices to pull back throughout the year, hovering between $US26,000 and $US32,000. In the long-term, prices are expected to remain on a firm uptrend, pushing as high as $US37,000 per tonne by 2033.
“We expect tin demand to grow strongly, with the market entering a deficit from 2028 onwards,” BMI said.
“On the supply side, a thin pipeline of tin mining projects will tighten the tin concentrate market, leading to increased competition among smelters and constrained ore feed for refined output growth.
“On the demand side, the global use of tin will increase rapidly through the metal’s use in electronics (electric vehicles, solar panels, etc).
“Ultimately, this will allow the market to tighten.”
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