Australia is expected to earn $13.8 billion from lithium exports in the 2022–23 financial year (FY23), which is almost $13 billion more than FY21.
The Australian Government’s Resources & Energy Quarterly for the September quarter highlighted the insatiable demand for the battery metal, which is being primarily driven by the electric vehicle (EV) sector.
“Despite faltering global economic growth in the June quarter, sales and production of electric vehicles continued their rapid growth trend,” the report said.
“Global sales of all types of EVs increased 36 per cent in the year to June 2022 compared with the same period in 2021 – with Chinese sales up 110 per cent, European sales up 6 per cent, and North American sales up 27 per cent.
“In China, total EV sales have averaged almost half a million vehicles a month so far in 2022, reaching a peak of 650 thousand vehicles in June.”
As EV manufacturers build more cars to keep up with demand, the need for lithium has soared, sending prices to record levels.
The Resources & Energy Quarterly predicted prices for spodumene concentrate – a raw lithium material – to rise from an average of $US598 per tonne (t) in 2021 to $US2730/t in 2022 and $US3280/t in 2023, before pulling back to $US2490/t in 2024.
Prices for lithium hydroxide – a refined version of spodumene – are expected to lift from an average of $US17,370/t in 2021 to $US38,575/t in 2022 and $US51,510 in 2023, before cooling to $US37,650/t in 2024.
While lithium prices will continue their climb in the coming years, the Resources & Energy Quarterly expects Australian lithium production to increase from 247,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in FY21 to 387,000 tonnes in FY23 and 469,000 tonnes of LCE in FY24.
This comes as the likes of Pilbara Minerals and Mineral Resources look to expand their local lithium operations, while the Greenbushes project in Western Australia – owned by a joint venture of Albemarle Corporation (49 per cent) and IGO/Tianqi Lithium Corporation (51 per cent) – is also set for expansion.
New projects set to come online include Core Lithium’s Finniss lithium project in Northern Territory and Liontown Resources’ Kathleen Valley lithium project in WA.